Westward Ho, or No?

Hurricane Bertha more or less stayed put Saturday, with some models projecting an easterly jog as it nears Bermuda and others suggested a westerly nudge that would impact the island more.

East is still the most likely, though.

This from the National Hurricane Center at 5 p.m. Eastern Time Saturday:

“Bertha has barely moved during the day. The pattern of weak steering currents is expected to continue for the next day or two…so only a painfully slow northward motion is anticipated.”

A U.S. Air Force plane made two passes through the eye today and did not report any hurricane-force winds.

That’s all great, but the problem with stalled hurricanes is their unpredictability. Typically, they weaken. Hurricane forecasting has improved tremendously in recent years but factors such as water temperature, currents, and wind sheer all play important roles.

The Bermuda Weather Service just issued a tropical storm warning for the island, saying Hurricane Bertha remains a threat. It pegs the closest approach within the next 72 hours to the island at 7 a.m. Monday, 96 nautical miles to the east.