What can anyone say about a storm with the size and destructive potential of Gustav? In my case, I’ve been able to say, or write, very little. I'm a bit shell-shocked. Friday was the 3rd Anniversary of Katrina’s landfall; at this point three years ago I was stranded with colleagues at The Times-Picayune, trying to put out a paper on-line and praying the water wouldn’t continue to rise.
Even 500 miles away in Nashville, safely above sea level, my chest is tight, a knot grips my throat. At least this time my cell phone works. We are expecting to take in some people who will wisely evacuate. Earlier this evening (Saturday), New Orleans ordered a mandatory evacuation to begin Sunday. The mayor noted that Katrina’s footprint covered 400 miles. Gustav already is up to 900 miles.
Much can change in the next 36 hours. When this is over, Mad Mariner will bring you details of damage to marinas and the recreational boating industry. Honestly, worrying about the fate of a sailboat or trawler right now seems trivial.
Still, if Katrina didn’t teach marinas and boat owners to have a plan, revise what didn’t work and do it already, this storm will. BoatUS has a great hurricane preparation site.
Take a look, too, at the National Hurricane Center’s maps for Gustav. My current favorite is “The Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule,” which denotes the danger area with shading. Historically, this was a rule mariners learned that incorporated forecasting and inherent errors 100-200-300 nautical miles at 24-48-72 hours, respectively. Better forecasting science has reduced the errors but keep in mind, once a hurricane enters the Gulf of Mexico, all bets are off.
Nearly the entire Gulf right now is shaded, followed by another big area around Tropical Storm Hanna and a substantial amoeba-shaped blob for an as-yet unnamed potential third storm not far behind.
The Mariners’ 1-2-3 Rule is still useful, but anyone in the Gulf of Mexico on a boat right now needs a Plan B. I came up with my own 1-2-3 rule, whether it is for your boat or your house. 1. Secure. 2. Pack. 3. Leave.
Let me know how you are doing out there. Send a note to pamcoyle@madmariner.com.
